Scenario Planning

Among the many tools that we offer for strategic planning, scenario planning is the beginning of the process. Scenario planning incorporates the identification of uncertainty and trends into a process that assimilates the whole range of possibilities and ends with rich stories detailing complete industry, market, and organizational implications to success. This process better informs and broadens perspective to help avoid the usual errors of decision making, such as overconfidence and tunnel vision.

All leaders work from a set of mostly outdated or uninformed assumptions. For instance a physicist and president of the British Royal Society stated in 1885 that “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” In 1977, the president of Digital Equipment Corporation stated that “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Based on our current realities, we also assume the realities of the future. However, as evidenced by recent economic events, these assumptions are being challenged at lightening speeds of change in today’s evolving markets.

Based on this known pace of change, strategic planning without scenario planning is likely to be an internally-focused process that will not be enough to support a successful strategic vision for the years ahead. Further, scenario planning simplifies the complexity of data into limited frames of reference that are plausible – leading to the more expansive and innovative thinking essential for competing in today’s global economy.

Our scenario planning practices include the following steps:

Identification of core questions about the future
Definition of driving forces and impacts for your industry
Clarification of market research needed to be informed and accountable
Description of specific and prioritized impacts and uncertainties for your organization
Development of specific and simplified scenario frames of reference
Creation of detailed stories for each scenario
Completion of implications and next steps for the organization